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Now the fun really begins! Eight teams have qualified for the knockout stage of the tournament which begins next Saturday. There were some exciting contests in the final weekend of pool play but only one real upset as Fiji toppled Wales to earn their first ever quarterfinal berth. Italy came close to beating Scotland but missed a crucial kick that would have given them the victory. Here’s how the quarters shape up.
The first quarterfinal takes place in Marseille and features Pool B winners Australia taking on Pool A runners-up England in a rematch of the 2003 Rugby World Cup Final. The bad news for the Wallabies is that they’re going to have to make do without flyhalf Stephen Larkham whose knee problems continue to sideline him. I can’t see England winning this match even with youngster Berrick Barnes wearing number ten. Australia’s defense is too tight for England to crack and the Wallabies’ backline should be able to slice up the defending champions.
The second quarterfinal will be played in Cardiff and pits New Zealand against France. This match-up wasn’t supposed to happen this early but since the French didn’t win their pool, they have to make the trip to Wales to take on the tourney favorites. The All Blacks have yet to be seriously challenged so it’s going to be a huge step up in intensity when they meet the Tricolors at Millennium Stadium on Saturday night. This is a battle that is going to leave one very disappointed loser. If it’s the All Blacks, New Zealand will go into prolonged mourning. If it’s Les Bleus, all France will suffer a notable letdown in enthusiasm for the tournament. I think this one will go to the All Blacks.
The third quarterfinal is on Sunday in Marseille and it features South Africa and Fiji. The Fijians shocked Wales in Nantes on Saturday but in the process they lost their field general – flyhalf Nicky Little – to a leg injury. It’s going to be very difficult for the Fijians to find as many holes in South Africa’s defense as they did in Wales’ and I imagine their task will be made even harder because they won’t get nearly as much ball to work with. It’s a great accomplishment for Fiji to make it this far but they won’t be going any farther because the Springboks are simply a much better overall side.
The last quarterfinal was supposed to have France playing at home in front of a packed house but instead it will be Argentina taking on Scotland at Stade de France. Scotland might be the weakest of the eight teams in the quarters and I just don’t see how they’re going to stop the Pumas from advancing to the semis. Scotland played just well enough to win against the Italians but will find the going significantly more difficult on Sunday night against Argentina. The Pumas’ defensive work has been outstanding so far in the tourney and I expect them to easily throttle the Scots.
I’d love to be in Cardiff next weekend but I made the decision before the world cup began to travel to Marseille to catch those two quarters instead.
