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Before the World Cup started I picked the USA to win one match and Canada to win two.
I figured that the Eagles would be able to at least beat the seemingly dysfunctional Tongans and that the Canadians would overcome both Fiji and Japan. It sounded good at the time but it proved to be a totally inaccurate prediction that was most likely skewed by desire to see both countries perform well on the sport’s biggest stage.
The last two days were not great ones for the rugby teams from Canada and the USA. On Tuesday we flew into Bordeaux from Edinburgh and were prepared to watch Canada beat Japan. And it looked like that was exactly what would happen except that at the end the Canadians couldn’t hold their discipline and the Cherry Blossoms wouldn’t give up.
The ending was thoroughly dramatic. All Canada had to do was hang onto the ball for a few more phases and they would have won. Instead, a kick was launched directly into touch a tad early, Japan proceeded to draw a succession of penalties that kept the game alive, and eventually scored from a final infringement that was ruled on by the TMO. And to top it all off, the Japan had to convert from about five meters in from touch to secure the draw at the death.
On Wednesday we returned to Paris briefly and got right back on the train to St. Etienne – something about there not being trains between Bordeaux and St. Etienne – to watch the USA play Samoa. Prior to the tourney I would have given the USA no chance to beat Samoa but since they’d been playing less than stellar rugby and they’d lost to Tonga in an island grudge match, I believed that the Eagles could sneak a win against them. Wrong again.
After the first quarter it looked like Manu Samoa was going to run away with it when they got tries from Lome Fa’atau and Alesana Tuilagi. A third five pointer from Kane Thompson seemed to seal the deal. Going into halftime down 22-3 I thought that the Eagles were out of it but they fought back in the second half, just not quite enough.
What this means is that for the first time ever, the two North American qualifiers are going to go home without a single win between them. I know that they each still have a match left but if you really believe that the USA is going to beat South Africa or that Canada is going to upset Australia then I’d love to do some betting with you!
So why can’t the USA and Canada beat the pool opponents who are closest to them in the world rankings?
I think some of it has to do with professionalism. Many if not most of the islanders are playing rugby for money in top level set-ups. All the players on the Japanese team are also full-time pros. This gives them a couple of advantages over the handful of Americans and decent bunch of Canadians who have contracts. First, they are immersed in the sport because everyone around them is on the same page thinking about rugby. And second, they face a regular diet of quality opposition whereas the North American based players tend to be stars who play for the best teams in their competitions. That doesn’t necessarily help them that much in getting better.
I think a good example of this is the Georgian team. They finally got their first win and are playing some cohesive, forward oriented rugby. Not terribly exciting I’ll admit but it has proven effective for them. And where do they learn it? By playing mostly in the French second division, mostly as semiprofessionals, but almost all participating in a competition that tests them every week.
Okay, so now that I’ve isolated the problem all we need to do is either get a new pro league in North America or figure out a way to export five times as many players to different competitions around the world!
This weekend is going to be huge and I’ll be attending and reporting back from England vs. Tonga, Fiji vs. Wales, and Ireland vs. Argentina.
